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Post by purifyweirdshard on Jul 25, 2019 11:39:02 GMT -6
Yep Asta, on some levels I feel like that's something everyone knows but either doesn't care for or doesn't put much time into thinking about it. It's just realistic, to me.
heh, in response to topic title, I was instead worried that they wouldn't be able to print enough copies to sell. My "2 million" is looking less ridiculously optimistic now, huh?
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Post by dareka on Jul 25, 2019 15:05:01 GMT -6
Anyways Bloodstained is at 500k-1M copies sold on steam alone now in case anybody was still somehow worried about this. So happy to read it just climbed from the 200k-500k tier to the 500k-1M tier! If Steamspy is to be believed and we go with the lowest number possible (500k) it must man that at least another 500k have been sold combining PS4, XB1 and Switch sales, right? This game must be past 1,000,000 copies sold right about now! But I'd figured we would've heard about it by now if that was the case so who knows? Maybe they're saving that announcement for later? Like I said before: if they're smart, they won't gloat about the numbers until the issues with the Switch version are settled, either because there's a patch that fixes them, or because they announce there are no more patches planned to improve performance. People are up in arms about the mere mention of paid DLC before the Switch version is fixed - trumpeting how well the game is doing sales-wise is not going to win them any sympathizers, much less if the Switch version sold well. |
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Post by Aztec on Jul 25, 2019 15:14:12 GMT -6
So happy to read it just climbed from the 200k-500k tier to the 500k-1M tier! If Steamspy is to be believed and we go with the lowest number possible (500k) it must man that at least another 500k have been sold combining PS4, XB1 and Switch sales, right? This game must be past 1,000,000 copies sold right about now! But I'd figured we would've heard about it by now if that was the case so who knows? Maybe they're saving that announcement for later? Like I said before: if they're smart, they won't gloat about the numbers until the issues with the Switch version are settled, either because there's a patch that fixes them, or because they announce there are no more patches planned to improve performance. People are up in arms about the mere mention of paid DLC before the Switch version is fixed - trumpeting how well the game is doing sales-wise is not going to win them any sympathizers, much less if the Switch version sold well. You make a ton of sense! |
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Post by saberwolf94 on Jul 26, 2019 3:53:35 GMT -6
I mean, steamspy shows that there are 200k-500k owners on Steam alone, and for a $40 indie game that's pretty nuts. I wouldn't worry too much about it. That's very good, but one thing to keep in mind is that the game has probably cost far more than 5.5 million dollars to produce. IIRC, though I'd have to ask around to find it, not long after 505 came on board, Igarashi said the 5.5 million Kickstarter funds had already been "long gone." I believe, though again I'd have to ask to make sure, that 505 added in a decent bit of its own money to the project to do things like get Wayforward on board. If you put a gun to my head and asked me to estimate how much the game cost, especially after the delays relating to Inti, I'd say 15 million dollars as a conservative estimate.
Now, add to that the costs involved in
A: Getting out the free DLC, which was promised on Kickstarter, intended to be part of the base game, and therefore not anything the team can make money off of. They might be able to profit off of costume and story expansion DLC in the future, but the stuff we're looking forward to at the moment is not making us money in return for the continuing development costs.
B: Fixing a lot of bugs, which seem to be much more severe than anyone hoped for, especially at launch (the bad press of which might drag on sales at least slightly). Given the number and severity of those bugs, especially in regards to the Switch, I imagine fixing them is going to take a a considerable amount of cash.
So, with these two factors added in, I think they'd add anywhere from 5 million (at most) to let's say 2 million (if the "free DLC" stretch goals encourages a few more people to buy the game, and if the DLC is relatively easier to make thanks to the basic game systems and assets already completed). So again taking a conservative estimate, we're at a total of 17 million for development costs.
Now, going from the stats you gave, Mourning, if there are 200k sales on Steam, and the game is selling for 36 dollars (not 40, they're taking 10% off at the moment), we get
200,000 x 36 = 7,200,000, or 7 million and two hundred thousand dollars.
At the higher end, 500k copies, we get
500,000 x 36 = 18,000,000 or 18 million.
Now, the higher number alone would seem to net us a profit of 1 million over the initial estimated dev costs of 17 million. But keep in mind there are always Steam fees, taxes, and other things eating away at our profit margin. So I think under the most generous assumptions, we're making in income 60% of what steam reports in sales. So that would be 60% of 7.2 million or 4.32 million for 200k sales, or 10.8 million for 500k sales. So even being as generous as possible for Steam sales, we're still a good deal in the red. If PS4, Xbox, and Switch sales are even comparable to the higher end of the steam sales, that could push us back into the black, but I get the feeling we were relying on a lot of Switch sales and the problems with the Switch port might be severely eating into our sales on that front, which would leave a hefty impact on our end profits.
I don't think all is lost--it's been less than a month since release, and if we've already got a high end of 500k sales on Steam alone, it is conceivable we'll have well over a million (Steam combined with other platforms) before the year is out; even 50% profits of a million sales of 36 to 40 dollars (as the steam sale will end eventually) will allow us to turn a profit on 17-20 million development costs. And this is all napkin math anyways, it may be I've massively overestimated the development costs and/or the cut Steam and taxes take too. Still, even with very strong sales for an indie, I don't think we're entirely out of the woods yet...let's hope the coming DLC encourages a ton of new folks to buy the game!!!
Between the slacker backer campaign (which lasted a very long while) and paypal I heard that the total funds gathered were around 7 million but I can't provide any evidence, I don't remember where I read it though. 15 million seems a bit too crazy for me although I agree that 505 must have provided more financial assistance after they got involved. I would imagine for them to be so eager to get involved after the success of the campaign they must have calculated wide margins for profit and since their asking price for it is so generous I think it should be good. The better question is for enough newbies to get impressed and want more games of the same nature to be produced. |
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Post by Aztec on Jul 27, 2019 11:58:50 GMT -6
That's very good, but one thing to keep in mind is that the game has probably cost far more than 5.5 million dollars to produce. IIRC, though I'd have to ask around to find it, not long after 505 came on board, Igarashi said the 5.5 million Kickstarter funds had already been "long gone." I believe, though again I'd have to ask to make sure, that 505 added in a decent bit of its own money to the project to do things like get Wayforward on board. If you put a gun to my head and asked me to estimate how much the game cost, especially after the delays relating to Inti, I'd say 15 million dollars as a conservative estimate.
Now, add to that the costs involved in
A: Getting out the free DLC, which was promised on Kickstarter, intended to be part of the base game, and therefore not anything the team can make money off of. They might be able to profit off of costume and story expansion DLC in the future, but the stuff we're looking forward to at the moment is not making us money in return for the continuing development costs.
B: Fixing a lot of bugs, which seem to be much more severe than anyone hoped for, especially at launch (the bad press of which might drag on sales at least slightly). Given the number and severity of those bugs, especially in regards to the Switch, I imagine fixing them is going to take a a considerable amount of cash.
So, with these two factors added in, I think they'd add anywhere from 5 million (at most) to let's say 2 million (if the "free DLC" stretch goals encourages a few more people to buy the game, and if the DLC is relatively easier to make thanks to the basic game systems and assets already completed). So again taking a conservative estimate, we're at a total of 17 million for development costs.
Now, going from the stats you gave, Mourning, if there are 200k sales on Steam, and the game is selling for 36 dollars (not 40, they're taking 10% off at the moment), we get
200,000 x 36 = 7,200,000, or 7 million and two hundred thousand dollars.
At the higher end, 500k copies, we get
500,000 x 36 = 18,000,000 or 18 million.
Now, the higher number alone would seem to net us a profit of 1 million over the initial estimated dev costs of 17 million. But keep in mind there are always Steam fees, taxes, and other things eating away at our profit margin. So I think under the most generous assumptions, we're making in income 60% of what steam reports in sales. So that would be 60% of 7.2 million or 4.32 million for 200k sales, or 10.8 million for 500k sales. So even being as generous as possible for Steam sales, we're still a good deal in the red. If PS4, Xbox, and Switch sales are even comparable to the higher end of the steam sales, that could push us back into the black, but I get the feeling we were relying on a lot of Switch sales and the problems with the Switch port might be severely eating into our sales on that front, which would leave a hefty impact on our end profits.
I don't think all is lost--it's been less than a month since release, and if we've already got a high end of 500k sales on Steam alone, it is conceivable we'll have well over a million (Steam combined with other platforms) before the year is out; even 50% profits of a million sales of 36 to 40 dollars (as the steam sale will end eventually) will allow us to turn a profit on 17-20 million development costs. And this is all napkin math anyways, it may be I've massively overestimated the development costs and/or the cut Steam and taxes take too. Still, even with very strong sales for an indie, I don't think we're entirely out of the woods yet...let's hope the coming DLC encourages a ton of new folks to buy the game!!!
Between the slacker backer campaign (which lasted a very long while) and paypal I heard that the total funds gathered were around 7 million but I can't provide any evidence, I don't remember where I read it though. 15 million seems a bit too crazy for me although I agree that 505 must have provided more financial assistance after they got involved. I would imagine for them to be so eager to get involved after the success of the campaign they must have calculated wide margins for profit and since their asking price for it is so generous I think it should be good. The better question is for enough newbies to get impressed and want more games of the same nature to be produced. You’re forgetting a very very important part. Iga didn’t get the $5.5 million from KS. You have to substract taxes, fees and the cut to KS. Iga has gone on record to say that a little more than half is what you really get at the end of a KS campaign to work with and then there’s the manufacturing and shipping of the tens of thousands of backer rewards. Más far as game crowdfundings go Bloodstained still broke records, they just didn’t have as much money in the end as you thought. As for the additional funding through PayPal, slacker backing, and additional funds by external sources like 505 that’s an entirely different matter. |
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Post by saberwolf94 on Jul 27, 2019 13:46:50 GMT -6
Between the slacker backer campaign (which lasted a very long while) and paypal I heard that the total funds gathered were around 7 million but I can't provide any evidence, I don't remember where I read it though. 15 million seems a bit too crazy for me although I agree that 505 must have provided more financial assistance after they got involved. I would imagine for them to be so eager to get involved after the success of the campaign they must have calculated wide margins for profit and since their asking price for it is so generous I think it should be good. The better question is for enough newbies to get impressed and want more games of the same nature to be produced. You’re forgetting a very very important part. Iga didn’t get the $5.5 million from KS. You have to substract taxes, fees and the cut to KS. Iga has gone on record to say that a little more than half is what you really get at the end of a KS campaign to work with and then there’s the manufacturing and shipping of the tens of thousands of backer rewards. Más far as game crowdfundings go Bloodstained still broke records, they just didn’t have as much money in the end as you thought. As for the additional funding through PayPal, slacker backing, and additional funds by external sources like 505 that’s an entirely different matter. I have to confess I forgot about kickstarter's cut in fees but it's unbelievable for me to think that they keep almost half. For them to get more than $300000 to $500000 is almost like theft in my opinion. But I think paypal and everything else they got after the main campaign in the slacker backer window does matter as it's just more money coming while the game is in development without adding even more stretch goals. |
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Post by Aztec on Jul 27, 2019 16:33:18 GMT -6
saberwolf94after Kickstarter fees and taxes Iga said it’s a rule of thumb to think that whatever number is in the campaign tally you’ll actually get close to half. It’s not exactly half but it’s a good way to quickly make a mental note of what your actual budget will be at the end. What I can’t remember is if he was taking into consideration the cost of the backer rewards or not in that calculation but still, fact is the actual number they got was significantly less than the $5.5 million that appears in the KS page. So yeah there’s no way this game could’ve been delayed this much, and invested so many man hours into a game this big without the additional funding three got from PayPal, slacker backers, and especially their publisher 505.
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